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The Visitor's Page - 18 - April 2010 I'm delighted to have received pictures from viewers of Loweswatercam, so I have decided to post them here for others to enjoy. If you wish to send me a photo and some information about it, feel free to do so and I'll try to include it on this page. It needn't be just about the Lakes, it can be about anything you've done recently. Click here if you wish to email me your contribution. I reserve the right to withhold, censor or generally edit any comments as necessary, and I accept no responsibility for photos or comments posted. Keeping photo sizes below 200 Kb would be appreciated. 11x8.25 jpeg or 6x8 jpeg vertical at 72 dps would be excellent. Don't forget that short narrative too . . . thanks. ( If you follow any of the links on this page, a simple keyboard backspace should get you back to where you left off. ) |
What a coincidence . . .
This week Ian Parkinson (pictured below) was up on holiday from Stockport and was in Loweswater climbing Hen Comb.
He parked opposite our cottage and at the end of the walk came over and introduced himself to Ann and myself (I was outside at the time) and we enjoyed a very pleasant late morning coffee with him.
He was hoping to climb his last seven Wainwrights later in the week in order to to complete his first round of all the 214 Lakeland Peaks highlighted in Alfred Wainwright's guide books. This he managed to do in fine weather on the summit of (Scafell's) Lingmell Pike.
Ian in jubilant mood . . . his photo.
While he was up there (and here's the coincidence) two guys turned up who were also in jubilant mood and who proceeded to open a bottle of bubbly in celebration.
They were also completing their 214 on the same mountain on the same day and shared a toast, with Ian, to their joint achievements.
Congratulations therefore to Dacre on the left and Stephen Cowan on the right (from Gateshead, Tyne and Wear)
But it doesn't stop there . . .
Stephen Cowan's pseudonym on the Online Fellwalking Club is Viking Probe and I have met him in Fishers a few times in recent years,
so it turned out that two Loweswatercam viewers turned up on their respective 214 final peaks on the same fell at the same time on the same day.
( Ian is pictured in the background by the way)
Odds of probability ???
I can't work it out . . . can you ?
Congrats to you all . . . and thanks for the sending photos and letting us be part of your celebration.
Roger
Just read your story about the two completions on Lingmell.
Maybe not quite as rare as you might think. On 22 August last year Andy
Lang, Claire and myself accompanied Mike Brown on his 214th on Slight Side.
Another couple were on the summit and when we asked them to take a group photo of us, and explained it was Mike's 214th they couldn't believe it. They pointed to a chap sitting just below the summit having a cup of coffee with his mate.
He had also completed on Slight Side 10 minutes earlier - unfortunately
we didn't get his picture but here is one of Mike in triumphant pose, and
the four of us [don't know why Claire hogged the limelight - she is the
only one of us not to have completed as yet - 60 to go for her].
To stretch the coincidence even further our first fell that day had been
Lingmell - where your other completers finished.
Regards Martin
Congratulations Mike.
It wasn't that long ago that I remember you were starting out on your adventure.
It seems the odds on two folk completing their 214 at the same time on the same day on the same mountain is lower than we think . . . Rmh
Hello Roger
Just to continue with tales of coincidence on Lingmell Fell, on the day before Stephen and Dacre topped out I had been over in the Burnmoor Tarn/Wasdale area continuing with my "Birkett Round" which I hope to finish this year - but I have been saying this for at least two years now so who can tell?
Anyway on my walk back over Moses Trod I camped up on the plateau above
Sty Head Tarn and in the morning on my way down to Seathwaite met and had
a chat with these two fine fellows as they made their way up on that day.
They told me they were aiming for their final Wainwright but I'm feeling
a wee bit peeved as had I known they were carrying champers I'm sure I would
have changed my itinerary!
Hope to see you and Ann before too long
Freddy Phillips.
Roger and everyone,
Regarding the odds of this happening . . .
I keep mulling this over and I did make a mistake in my first calculation,
so
here's a revision.
How many completers per year? - no idea, but I know 2 who
aren't in the WS or on any forum. Let's say 200 per year. Let's also say
that
there's a maximum of 200 days per year that a completer would complete,
ruling
out bad weather and Mondays. So 1 per potential completion day. So a 1 in
2
chance of two folk completing on the same day. Let's say that there's only
50
fells that anyone carefully planning would want to finish on, ruling out
many
more remote Northern, Western, Far Eastern Fells and, of course, Raise and
plenty others. So if completer 1 chooses fell A from the 50, there is a
1 in 50
chance that completer 2 would do the same. So we reach 1 in 100 that two
completers choose the same fell on the same day. If a jubilant summiteer
spends
20 minutes on top, he probably does so between 10am and 4pm. There are 18
of
these 20 minute slots between these times, so you might say there's a 1
in 18
chance of any two completers being at the top of a given mountain at the
same
time a chosen day. Multiply that figure into the equation and the odds are
1 in
1800.
Readers, play around with the figures and see what you come up with.
If two such coincidences are already known, then the odds could be closer
with,
maybe, more completers than I imagine.
Cheerio,
Richard R.
This letter first posted on the Online Fellwalking Club Message Board
Anyone care to check the maths . . . Thanks Richard
. . . Rmh